The Old Lucretius Plan

Is Poverty History Yet?

While events were held round the world on 1st July to mark the 'Make Poverty History' campaign, the Maumere demonstration was rather more low key. As the picture shows, it is harder to get a good turnout when we do not have much in the way of celebrity rock stars to get the crowd motivated. If only Bono had turned up.

The world's attention seems to be focused on Africa this week, but it may surprise you to hear that this part of the world, in absolute terms, has more people living on less than $2 per day than Africa. If NTT province were a separate country then on indicators such as infant mortality it would be right in there with all those fashionable African countries. Which leads us to consider what we are actually achieving out here...

Work is tough but rewarding as we approach the one year in placement milestone. It is a funny thing really, you give up your job, sell your home and move to the other side of the globe with expectations of what you can achieve based on a little bit of personal research and some indications from VSO. On arrival you soon discover how woefully misguided some of these expectations were, and directed towards satisfying your own personal needs rather than the needs of the local community. Now, I am not saying that world peace and an end to global poverty would not have benefited the local people here in Flores but I was probably aiming a little high.

The truth of it is, I am constantly readjusting, usually downwards, my expectations of what is achievable here within my two year placement. This is certainly more a reflection of my own initially unrealistic aims than the conditions locally or the potential of my colleagues.

The more measured pace of life here, and the weight of people's experiences with government regimes and interactions with other development agencies, plays a part in how they respond to you and the concept and importance of change. With this in mind, a couple of weeks ago I ran a session in the health department discussing what change means, how it can make you feel, whether change is always good, different types of change and so forth. This meeting came about from a personal frustration that external development agencies (Western NGOs) with large funds for projects seem to essentially run certain local government departments, or at the other extreme do not include them at all in their activities. It is one of many frustrations that have taken me by surprise. Obviously I realised change and adaptation from both myself and my colleagues would be fundamental to my placement, but I am surprised that such a large barrier to change is the impact and working practices of development agencies.

So here I am a year into the contract, and I feel I am finally getting my head round the task ahead and what is required of me. It concerns more fundamental issues than I first thought, particularly the importance of empowerment. If in a year's time I return to the UK leaving a more highly skilled, motivated and empowered Health Department resulting in a healthier, better cared for community, I will feel more than happy with that. Making Poverty History will just have to wait until Bono answers my e-mail.

To learn more about how development agencies can be obstacles to change read on...

Important Ladies

Tuesday of this week was the last day of May and so the last day of the month of Maria in the Catholic calendar. This event was celebrated at a place called Nilo some 30 minutes drive out of Maumere. This is a special place high up a mountain where a huge statue of Maria has been erected looking out over Maumere and the Northern coast in one direction and all the way to the Southern coast in the other. A Mass was held at the foot of the statue with 40 priests and some 1000 people making up the congregation, including the Portuguese Ambassador. There were representative groups from all over Flores dressed in traditional costume and performing each district's local dance.

The Mass lasted about 3 hours, but with people wanting to find a good position to stand, some were there much longer. The Maumere equivalent of the St Johns Ambulance was present in case of the need for medical attention, in particular due to the heat, and water was handed around to those of us, including myself, unlucky enough not to be standing under the shade of the tarpaulin. One poor elderly man had a stroke (well, you could say he was lucky as it is fairly unusual to be so close to medical attention in Flores).

At the end of Mass, police sirens could be heard and a cloud of dust caused by a convoy of cars that was making its way up the dirt track towards us. By the time the cars reached us, most people were covering their faces as it was hard to breathe or see anything and I was wondering who this special guest must be to have been allowed to drive all the way to the top. Former President Megawati stepped out of one of the cars to enormous applause and made her way to the foot of the statue.

Now I was a little surprised about how popular she was in Flores and wouldn't have thought she was the obvious presidential candidate for this area, but they were disappointed when she didn't get re-elected. She gave a short speech proclaiming how NTT as a province feels like home to her and then announced she was giving 150 million rupiah of her own money to complete the project at Nilo: building a fence around the statue, providing electricity to light the statue up at night and so forth.

This, as you can imagine, was a very popular announcement and the people around me reiterated that Megawati should have won the election and that they would support her again. It would be tempting to think that personal financial contributions from politicians to fund cultural projects in politically sensitive areas are not the desirable attributes of a proper democracy. One cannot help be a little sceptical about the motives of a woman who did so much to court the hardline Muslim vote in the election, arriving in Maumere to throw money at an overtly Christian project. One should either be encouraged by her ecumenical spirit or disheartened by her cynicism.

[Ed's Note: Beth's scepticism did not prevent her from getting this snap of 'Mega', see below:]

Out of his tree

While reading the local paper the other day, I came across an article which stood out from the usual rice or weather related stories. It stated that a woman, Astini, from Surabaya had been executed for the murder of three girls, whom she had preceded to cut into small pieces and then deposited their remains over a wide area. This was obviously a very distressing case and unusual, in that the perpetrator was a woman. Astini was 51 years old and married with 3 children. She offered no defence for her actions, pleading guilty in 1996 saying she was angry with the three victims who frequently came to her house collecting debts.

The method of execution in Indonesia is death by firing squad, the squad consisting of twelve men, six of whom carry live bullets and aim for the heart. The girls in my office said that the death penalty is rarely carried out in Indonesia and they believe the method to be more humane than in Malaysia where hanging is the preferred option. This was Indonesia's fourth execution since August last year and before that, only two people had been executed since 1995. The offences which carry this most final of sentence are murder and drug trafficking.

On discussing the news story with our neighbours they told us about a local chap who is currently on death row for murder. He murdered his wife, child and sister-in-law and then went on the run. He ran only as far as the tallest tree in the area, which he proceeded to climb while still carrying the murder weapon, a machete. Meanwhile the local police and army leapt into action and combed the area to no avail. It seems that climbing a tree as a means to avoid detection is not such an unusual idea, so it wasn't long before everyone started looking upwards in their search and found their suspect clinging to a particularly tall tree. On seeing the machete, the police felt the retrieval of the suspect was more of an army matter so stood back. The army was convinced it was the responsibility of the police, so stood back too. After much prevarication it was decided safer and easier all round to make camp at the base of the tree and wait. After all, the suspect was without food or water, so they figured he would climb down when he was hungry. The villagers, on the other hand, felt a more proactive approach was needed, so they started a fire at the foot of the tree. This being a particularly tall tree, the man was able to climb a bit higher and avoid the heat and smoke.

After a couple of days the lack of food and drink seemed to take effect and eyewitness accounts state that the man tried to make his escape either by attempting to leap from one tree to another or by leaping from the tree to the ground, over the waiting police and army, maybe with some vain hope that he would get a running start. Either way, he hit the ground hard and broke his leg.

He is currently residing in jail awaiting an execution date.

Obviously this isn't meant to make light of the crime committed, but locally, the manner of this individual's attempted escape and the subsequent 'Laurel and Hardy' means of capture has meant it has become the stuff of folklore.

However, just in case we run a way with the idea that Indonesia is particularly brutal, lets review some facts about the death penalty:

In 2000, 88 per cent of all known executions took place in China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the USA.
America is approaching its 900th execution since it resumed judicial killing in 1977.

International human rights treaties prohibit anyone under 18 years old at the time of the crime from being sentenced to death. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the American Convention on Human Rights and the Convention on the Rights of the Child all have provisions to this effect.

Seven countries since 1990 are known to have executed prisoners who were under 18 years old at the time of the crime - Congo (Democratic Republic), Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, USA and Yemen. The country which carried out the greatest number of known executions of child offenders was the USA (15 since 1990), accounting for more than half of child executions worldwide. Yemen has since outlawed the practice (as did China in 1997).

Over half the countries in the world have now abolished the death penalty in law or practice with more than three countries a year on average abolishing the death penalty for all crimes in the past decade.

Scientific studies have consistently failed to find convincing evidence that the death penalty deters crime more effectively than other punishments. The most recent survey of research findings on the relation between the death penalty and homicide rates, conducted for the United Nations in 1988 and updated in 1996, concluded: "Research has failed to provide scientific proof that executions have a greater deterrent effect than life imprisonment and such proof is unlikely to be forthcoming. The evidence as a whole still gives no positive support to the deterrent hypothesis..." (Reference: Roger Hood, The Death Penalty: A World-wide Perspective, Oxford, Clarendon Press, revised edition, 1996, p. 238, paragraph 328)

As long as the death penalty is maintained, the risk of executing the innocent can never be eliminated.
The Governor of the US State of Illinois, George Ryan, declared a moratorium on executions in January 2000. His decision followed the exoneration of the 13th death row prisoner found to have been wrongfully convicted in the state since the USA reinstated the death penalty in 1977.

Announcing the moratorium, Governor Ryan said: ''I cannot support a system which, in its administration, has proven so fraught with error and has come so close to the ultimate nightmare, the state's taking of innocent life... Until I can be sure that everyone sentenced to death in Illinois is truly guilty, until I can be sure with moral certainty that no innocent man or woman is facing a lethal injection, no one will meet that fate.''

(statistics courtesy of Amnesty International)

A slight pain in the Socrates

The recent reduction in fuel subsidies (see earlier blog entry) continues to lead to unrest and civil disturbance.

I blame the philosophy students. Civil protest, traditionally, is the preserve of students (except in the UK, where students seem to have become reactionary and bourgeois, more worried about the price of designer trainers than the plight of the workers) and no decent BBC report on upheaval is complete without some description of the students organising a sit-in or burning their undergarments.

The only university near here is in Ledalero, and the only two courses on offer are Theology (for trainee priests) or Philosophy (for future captains of industry). As a result we have a collection of radical students that are unable to form an economic or scientific argument against any government policy, but will happily put the issue in its metaphysical context.

At the weekend I received a text message from one of the students, asking if I can help them with their planned demonstration on Monday. I replied that on reflection, as a guest in Indonesia whose presence here (and work permit) is in the gift of the local Regent, I have deemed it necessary to remain neutral on this issue. I did not think it wise for me to be seen to be involved in acts of civil disobedience, and with philosophy students you never know where this sort of thing will lead. They could be stoics, and then we are all in trouble.

However, the following day I discovered that my work colleagues had not been quite so circumspect. In fact, they had agreed to lend the PT Jamasatira truck to the students, which was then used as the centrepiece of the demonstration, and like a prize elephant leading the circus into town, it preceded a motley collection of ojek drivers and bemos as it trumpeted and hooted around Maumere. The philosophy students were crowded on the cab roof with a large megaphone, from which they bombarded the town with the petrol-related writings of Sophocles, Kant and Andre Gide.

I caught up with them at the petrol station, where they were effecting a blockade while the ojek drivers filled up their bikes and then refused to pay for the petrol. Apart from this incident, the protest passed off reasonably peacefully, and the students assured me that our neutrality had been assured.

Beth was less convinced by my efforts to keep us out of trouble when she and her colleagues looked out of their office window to see what all the mayhem was about, and saw an unruly mob gathered around the truck.

From where she was standing (and as you can see from the picture), thanks to the truck's new paint-job, it looked tantamount to saying 'This civil unrest was brought to you by Dom & Beth, have a nice day!'

I'll second that commotion

You may have read in the news, though I doubt it is a big story outside Indonesia, that riots and strikes have been taking place here because the government has reduced the subsidy on fuel, leading to price rises, as reported on the BBC website:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4307433.stm

In Maumere all the Bemo drivers have gone on strike, and all the children have walked long distances to school. Earlier today there was a demonstration near our house, and I took a picture of the malcontents, who in classic Maumere fashion don't seem to be taking the whole thing very seriously. However, I took the opportunity to learn their grievances.

The immediate effect of the reduction of subsidies has been to increase a litre of petrol 30% from 1800 rupiah to 2400 rupiah, which is still less than 15 UK pence. There are some good economic arguments for reducing the subsidy, and The Economist survey of Indonesia (17/12/04, see www.economist.com/surveys), makes a good case for reduction by pointing out that the expenditure budget of the government is irrational and poorly targeted. To make matters worse, the performance of the Indonesian Government in collecting tax revenue has been poor (less than 2% of the population file tax returns) leading to losses through tax evasion estimated at 677 trillion rupiah (40 billion GBP).

The Economist believes that one quick way to free up money is to reduce the 63 trillion rupiah (3.7 billion GBP), or 3.5% of GDP, spent on fuel subsidies. These take the form of a blanket reduction in the retail price of kerosene and petrol, and it is said that some fuel is smuggled to countries with higher fuels prices. The argument runs that only a small proportion of the subsidies benefit the poor, according to the World Bank only 8%, as blanket subsidies favour higher volume users.

In fact, there has been an advert running on TV attempting to explain the reduction in subsidies, showing wealthy Indonesians in Mercs and BMWs lining up at a petrol station to receive their 'subsidy'. Poor people tend not to have cars or even motorbikes, and thus benefit less, or so the argument goes.

Certainly, the government could do with the money. The UNDP has calculated that for just 50 trillion rupiah (2.9 billion GBP) the government could raise spending on health care, education and food aid, and increase the number of police while quadrupling their salaries (though the Indonesian Police Force, like the British one, is not particularly deserving of such a windfall), alternatively, they could double development spending.

At the risk of agreeing with The Economist, (and like Cranmer, hope the hand that doth offend burns first), the subsidy reduction plan has much to recommend it, as I tried to explain to my friend and colleague Om Sirilus this morning. However, he countered that the World Bank figures do not show the whole story, as they fail to take into account the indirect benefit that people outside Java derive from fuel subsidies in the form of lower prices for essential goods.

The rise in fuel prices (affecting petrol, diesel and cooking oil) will raise the cost of goods imported to Flores from other islands, which is virtually everything. There is therefore an accelerator effect on certain prices. For instance, a 30% rise in the cost of petrol will actually double the cost of a bemo ride (a sort of local bus) because the price of tyres, brake pads, clutches etc. will also rise because of the increased cost of getting them here. Therefore, a school child who used to ride a Bemo to school every day for 500 rupiah each way, will now be asked for 1,000 rupiah each way. For a family of five children (which is usual here), the additional annual cost will work out at 1 million rupiah, which is 20% of the so-called annual 'minimum wage' of 4.8m rupiah (280 GBP), though bear in mind that at least 30% of people in this province earn less than the minimum wage.

Furthermore, the price of rice will rise because the boat fares have risen, and the lorries must also increase their prices to take account of higher input costs. For instance, at PT Jamasatira we have been renting the truck out to the government to distribute subsidised rice to the poor in remote villages. We will now need to increase our charges, thus increasing the cost of the rice for the government, and thus reducing the benefit the government derives from lower fuel subsidies.

Turning back to The Economist article, I was drawn once more to the statistic on tax evasion: 677 trillion rupiah (40 billion GBP) compared to the 20 trillion rupiah (1.1 billion GBP) to be saved this year by reducing fuel subsidies. Why didn't The Economist suggest the government become more robust at compelling people to pay their taxes, which would be guaranteed to target the better-off rather than the poor? Perhaps the neo-liberals and crypto-Thatcherites believe that to do so would disincentivise the wealth creators and remove an important engine of economic impetus.

On balance I feel that to remove a blanket subsidy by using the argument that it disproportionately benefits the rich, while forgetting that its removal disproportionately impacts on the poor, is to run the risk of implementing policy because it looks tough (rather like John Major's entreaty that 'if it isn't hurting it isn't working'), when in reality it is always easier to be tough on the poor.

Of course, in the long term the subsidies must go, and perhaps a phased withdrawal is the only answer. However, before insisting the poor bear the burden of economic transformation, perhaps more should be asked of the rich.

John Craven's Newsround

Beth has travelled to Ende this week, a town some 4 hours south of here, in order to attend a health conference, leaving me to fend for myself. In the absence of anything else constructive to do on a very hot day in Maumere, I thought I would catch up on some UK news. Living in a developing country lends one a somewhat distorted perspective of the outside world, and I tend to look back at home with either fond regard or horrified distaste, rather depending on how Indonesia is treating me at the time.

Currently, I am feeling fairly warm and fuzzy towards Indonesia, believing it to be a place where people are firmly rooted in a mutually supportive cultural and social environment. Do not misunderstand me, this place is by no means flawless, but I am now open to the idea that our cultural arrogance in the UK is a media-perpetuated fallacy betrayed by the facts.

So, join me while I tuck into some fresh pineapple (do you get freshly-picked pineapple in the UK? - I thought not.) and peruse the recent news items for inspiration:

Fifth wheel syndrome

Many volunteers (including us) put our names forward to be sent to Aceh and help the relief effort. Afterall, we are already acclimatised, know the culture and have some fluency in the language. It was therefore difficult to deal with the realisation that we were not wanted in Aceh as we do not have the right skills. This was articulated best by Jon Hunter, a Progamme Officer in the VSO office in Bali:

"As the scale of this disaster became apparent I think we all started to look at ourselves and ask what should I do? What can I do? How can I do it? When can I do it? We sat and watched and read the never-ending news and the never-ending images of those who had survived and more potently the images of those who did not. As with many people my personal reaction was that I wanted to go to Aceh, I wanted to go and use my skills to help people who’d had their families and homes literally swept away from them.

Nine days later I find myself still sat at my desk. I didn’t go to Aceh. In reality there was no real need for me to go to Aceh. It feels slightly strange, even disappointing. I expected to be there but I find myself watching the news and looking at images of hundreds of Indonesian volunteers searching through the remains of buildings, removing the bodies of those no longer recognizable and offering comfort to their Indonesian brothers and sisters. Images of Indonesian, US, British and Australian soldiers handing out water and food parcels, and Japanese, French and Indonesian doctors treating the many injured." - Jon Hunter, VSO Programme Officer, Indonesia

This begs the question: if VSO is a development organisation, then what is it doing?

Well, to give a small example, on New Years Eve, to give us something to do on Gili Trawangan, Beth and I, along with Debbie, Mat and Marina, with the help of Jo at Blue Marlin Dive School and her husband Marta, went out raising money from the tourists. We approached groups of tourists and explained what VSO was doing, and how any money they give us will be used for direct relief. After two hours of this we had raised 4m Rupiah (about $450), and we had enjoyed some very stimulating conversations with all sorts of people. In fact, I recommend this activity to anyone who feels jaded about the human race and needs to be reminded that most people are open-minded and charitable, regardless or religion or race.

We gave the money to the VSO programme office, and they spent it on medicine, water and clothing, and it has now been sent to Medan in Sumatra with a consignment of other goods from Bali.

In addition, VSO will be monitoring the situation in Sumatra and determining if a programme can be started there to help rebuild the civic infrastructure in the longer term.

Initially, our enforced seclusion from the impact area made us feel a little unwanted, but on reflection we realise that we do important work here tackling the long term disaster that is unfolding here every day, which is the disaster of poverty and disadvantage. When we help communities develop economically and socially, they are better protected against natural disasters.

The tragedy of Aceh is not that we live in a world that suffers tectonic instability, and that so many people live in areas vulnerable to natural disasters. The real tragedy is that unnecessary poverty in debt-laden countries is creating a cycle of vulnerability and dependence. It is our generation's responsibility to break this vicious circle.

Loss of life

People here are shocked and distressed by the devastation and death toll in Aceh and all the areas affected, but it is not the topic of most conversations, which to those of you subjected to 24 hour TV coverage may seem surprising, and even a little weird.

I had felt tinged with guilt at not being here in Maumere whilst this tragedy occurred, especially as they had their own tsunami which killed 3000 people 12 years ago. Knowing how frightened the locals get when they feel the slightest earth tremor, it felt I was somehow letting them down by being away on holiday (a luxury which no one here can afford). Though what use I thought I could be is beyond me.

I went back to work at the health department yesterday and on trying to ascertain whether anyone lost family or friends in Aceh was confronted with words of sympathy for the number of British dead and how tragic it was so many tourists lost their lives. Don't get me wrong, they are upset and their hearts go out to all those Indonesians who have lost their lives, but I began to realise as the day went on that although the Tsunami on Boxing day was incredibly devastating, there is a certain level of crisis that the people of Flores live with on a daily basis. So they do have big hearts and feel sorrow as does the West, but they can't afford to dwell on it for too long as they have to get on and try to live their lives, which can be a constant struggle.

This was poignantly brought home to us by our neighbour Pak Minggus who only yesterday had been discussing the tragic situation in Aceh. This morning he had tears in his eyes and was barely able to speak as he told us that last night his pig had died whilst in labour. In the light of recent events, this may seem trivial, and you may argue that he should feel lucky that he and his family are still alive unlike so many others. However, this is the latest in a line of seemingly trivial events: Pak Minggus used to have a flock of chickens, which is a valuable source of income here, and in November they all had to be destroyed due to a bird-flu type disease, and as the meat was deemed contaminated it could not be sold. Just before we went away for Christmas his guard dog's only puppy died, and shortly afterwards the dog itself had to be killed owing to suspected Rabies, which was a blow as he was quite attached to it. So much so that he couldn't bring himself to eat it, so the neighbours did the honours. Although the dog had no intrinsic monetary value to the family, Minggus spoke of a run of bad luck and was very low.

So it was with genuine need and desperation that he anticipated the piglets his treasured pig would produce in January. He excitedly said that he was expecting about 10 piglets which would sell for 250,000 Rupiah ($25) each, and the sow itself was worth 2 million Rp ($200). As in so much of life here, the money was already spoken for before it actually arrived.

This will hit the family hard financially as Indonesians have to pay for schooling and health care, and with five children to look after, keeping small amounts of livestock supplements a rather low wage. Their eldest son is at University in Bali training to become a Dentist and the hope is that he will fund the younger children's schooling when he starts work, but in the meantime they need to pay his training costs to keep him on his course.

So he was in tears for the loss of life, a valuable source of income and a run of awfully bad luck.

What can you do?

Many thanks for all the e-mails and SMS messages asking after our well-being after the tsunami on Boxing Day.  As you may now have gathered, we are well away from the disaster. Our original holiday plans did involve going to Sumatra, but fortunately the Gili islands prevailed as a suitable destination. 

That said, we and our VSO colleagues are in a state of limbo, and feeling somewhat impotent.  We are, afterall, aid workers, and so our natural reaction is to gravitate to where we are needed and see where we can help out.  The VSO office is getting a team together to go to Aceh and offer their services to the Red Cross, but this will not include Beth and me as we are not primary health workers.  I have rationalised this by reminding myself that Maumere was the victim of a massive Tsunami in 1992, killing 3,000 people, and the best hope for the town is for improved development to make the place more resilient.  So, in a roundabout kind of way, we are doing what George Bush would call 'forward defence' for the NEXT tsunami, rather than reactive aid to the present one.

The World Bank has announced that existing loans to the region will be diverted to disaster relief, and the larger NGOs will be digging deep in their funds to meet the needs of the communities affected.  This means that the flow of funds to other parts of Indonesia wil reduce, slowing down development efforts.  The BBC website tells us that the next danger for the victims of the disaster is the spread of communicable diseases such as Malaria, TB and Typhoid.  What it doesn't tell you is that for most poor comunities in Indonesia, that was a problem before the disaster.

No doubt the next few days will be characterised by the 'donation auction' by the major Northern countries, each claiming that their contribution is larger than the other countries.  Frankly, $35m from the USA is paltry, and $15m from the UK is not much better. $10m from Australia, a country that makes billions from exploiting mining concessions in Indonesia, is also rather mean. 

So, in the words of Tony Soprano 'What can you do?'.  I suggest you make a direct donation to a charity of your choice (the Red Cross is a good place to start), and send an e-mail to your MP asking that they support an increase in the budget of the Department for International Development (DfID).  As for us, we will continue to work with the Indonesian people to help them develop their country and make themselves better armed for this kind of disaster. 

Any disaster that befalls humanity is upsetting, but we have spent enough time in this country to learn a great deal about the Indonesians, and to see them in such peril, and with so little to their name, is extremely upsetting.

When we get back to Maumere next week, we will keep you up to date with any more news on the ground, and of course if we get sent to Aceh we will let you know.

Render Unto Caeser

I was fortunate enough to be at a conference in Bali last week, and was thus able to watch the US election unfold on CNN, popping back to my room between workshops to see progress. We all became steadily more depressed as the day wore on, and the (in hindsight) inevitable victory of the Republican party rolled into view, like an M1A2 Abrams tank in Falluja.

So, over a few beers on the beach, we came up with a formula for coping with this new state of world affairs, and here are our reasons to be cheerful:

1. Four more years of Bush, with a strong hold on Congress and a mandate from the Christian Right, will be a heady brew for progressives, secularists and social democrats everywhere. Just think of all the mindless acts of right-wing fundamentalism that we will be able to oppose! If Kerry had won, we would have been obliged to support him even though all that could be said of him is that he last made a meaningful decision about something 30 years ago and had been talking about it ever since.

2. Our shareholdings in drug companies will soar as Dubya's plans for prescription drugs on Medicaid and Medicare become more widely understood. Never has so much federal cash been transferred to the private sector so blatantly, outside the defence industry, obviously.

3. The continuing collapse of the dollar is assured. Prepare yourself for cheap flights to the US (blue states only please), where you will soon be able to buy a range of imported Chinese goods at amazing prices. Feel a surge of pride as the Euro becomes the official reserve currency, and crude oil becomes priced in Euros instead of Dollars.

4. Lastly, and most importantly, watch with glee as the whole edifice comes crashing down under the weight of its own contradictions. The reason why we are leftish progressives is not just because of moral issues (by which I mean fighting poverty, not gay-bashing), but also because we believe that right-wing ideological agendas fail to work at a practical level, somewhat like Soviet Communism. If Bush even survives four years without impeachment and ignominy, he is going to do such damage to the right wing of the republican party that they will be kept away from power for a generation, leading to some renewal of hope for the world.

So, in conclusion, those of you who thought that November 3rd would see me fulminating and fuming (that means you, Vyv), are quite wrong. I am really very relaxed about the whole thing. No, really.