Trevaylor and RRI published a report on 12th July to coincide with the second day of the Rights and Resources Initiative conference on forest tenure in Lombok.
It is a re-boot of the more comprehensive report I wrote earlier this year for the UK Climate Change Unit on the economics of moving to a low carbon economy in the land use sector. This new report concentrates on the role of tenure, and attempts to determine why tenure reform seems stuck in neutral in Indonesia, and how this reflects an economic paradigm that is leading Indonesia towards choppy waters in the medium term. It is perhaps dangerous to generalize too much about such a large economy from just one sector (forestry), but the evidence does point to an over-reliance on natural resources in Indonesia. This point has also been made by Harvard Kennedy School, although the World Bank seems to be more muted on the matter.
In writing this report I needed to consider how to take the stance of the 'critical friend' to Indonesia. The report was not released before the conference as there seemed no good reason to make waves before the event had even started, especially as the Ministry of Forestry was the host. On the other hand, institutional development does not happen in a vacuum. Good manners become an impediment to safety if a passenger deems it impolite to draw the crew's attention to the looming iceberg.
It is not uncontroversial to remark that the data show Indonesia has managed its natural assets poorly. Perhaps liquidating some non-renewable assets may be justified in the name of achieving development. However, what if the value of the development is less than the price paid? Fans of the Kuznets curve argue that environmental degradation is inevitable, but over time the environment will recover as society moves through the transition from primary extraction towards a higher-function economy comprising a materially affluent middle class. But what if the economy was geared towards capture by oligarchs, and a viable middle class (with both political and economic power) failed to emerge? In such circumstances, the Kuznets theory will not work - the country will be be saddled with the costs of degradation, but without winning the socio-economic development. There is evidence that Indonesia is stuck in such a rut at the moment, and that until the political economy changes, the prospects for forests, biodiversity and REDD projects look grim. (More on this in a separate post).
The report can be found here.
Abstract
'A new briefing paper by RRI and independent analyst Dominic Elson summarizing the struggle for tenure rights and current measures to decrease deforestation and emissions across the world, with particular reference to Indonesia. The paper takes into consideration the multiple actors at play in government and civil society who are trying to place these changes in political and livelihoods contexts – too often from conflicting vantage points. This analysis draws on information from various sources to present the current “state of play” in Indonesia—which has emerged as a key country in the global effort to reduce forest-based emissions. Much attention has been given in the global debate to the argument that reducing carbon emissions from forests could greatly slow economic growth in developing countries across the globe. This analysis presents provocative evidence showing that, in fact, the opposite may be true: in countries where equitable tenure regimes are supported, new pathways to a “low-carbon” economy emerge.'
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